Evaluating How the Islamic Republic of Iran Achieved its Vision Economic Goals by Designing and Computing a Composite Index and Using Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for Uncertainty Analysis

The Islamic Republic of Iran Vision aimed to direct development plans and yearly budgets. As one of the most important part, it includes 13 economic goals for directing economic route of the country for a twenty years period. After 15 years, evaluating how the country achieved to these goals is very important and unfortunately neglected. In this article, considering the different nature of goals, we designed a composite index and commuted the results using relative gap scoring method and two distinct model of weighting (first using same weights and second using principle component analysis) in 2005-2019. The results indicate that relative gap to vision economic goals have raised from 32.2% (or 35.7 based on equal weights) in 2005 to more than 51% in 2019. Uncertainty and sensitive analysis in concern of weighting system using Monte Carlo simulation shows that in 95% confidence interval, apart from weighting methods, the has raised significantly. “First place in the region in the realms of knowledge” is the only goal which has achieved completely and except “achievement of full employment”, “being developed” and “First place in the region in the realms of technology” relative gap from goals has risen during time.